1.1 enterprise life cycle curve theory
American economist Harry S. dent put forward the S-type development model of new technology and new industry. The industry has a life cycle (formation period, growth period, maturity period and recession period), and the industrial growth trajectory presents an S-shaped curve. Emerging industries need a process from “introduction period” to “growth period”. Different industries have different specific indicators. The commonness of this stage is that consumers basically accept products, and the supply and demand sides will enter a rapid and large-scale stage. Industries will show large-scale growth effect at this stage.
1.2 intelligent automobile lays a high energy density as the final direction of battery
1. Performance is the early focus of new products: the emergence of mobile phones in the early stage solved people’s demand for long-distance contact. The popular “big brother” in the 1990s sold for more than 20000 yuan. It was impossible to pay in the early pursuit of performance
Consumers are generally rich. For example, Tesla’s early product roadster sold for $109000,
Equivalent to more than 700000 yuan, the range is about 320 kilometers, which is far lower than that of fuel vehicles.
2. The conversion from minority customers to mass customers is the embodiment of the outbreak: when the early products are formed, the next step is to break through the market boundary and seek the conversion of customer groups. The strategy is to reduce the price and make the products more competitive
Price ratio, enter the harvest period of income growth.
3. Why do we think high energy density is the final development direction of battery?
1) At a certain stage, focus on solving the most urgent needs of customers. A subdivision will shine, but it will not change the law of industrial development direction. In the 1980s and 1990s, the function of call connection was the most important pain point. The main call function was cheap and fall resistant
Kia rose rapidly and became a giant in the mobile phone industry. With the construction of Internet infrastructure network, smart phones
The formation of network interactive products, Nokia did not seize the opportunity at this stage, and the market share was quickly replaced by apple
2) The future of automobile is a space carrier like a house. Intellectualization is the trend, which lays a foundation
The final direction of fixed battery is high energy density, or ternary or multivariate or new element battery. From mobile to smart
In the era of energy, 2g-3g-5g conversion brings us more interactive functions, and we can feel our hands at the same time
The battery power of the machine is getting insufficient. If the trend of automobile intelligence remains unchanged, then the battery of electric vehicle
As a “heart” function, it is necessary to provide sufficient power. Unlike mobile phones, cars can be charged statically
It is also not allowed to use + to stack the battery indefinitely. The battery weight (large battery quality, which will lose the mileage) is used to replace the capacitance. It is assumed that the intelligent function of the vehicle needs to lose 50% of the power in the future. According to the current mileage, the mileage is about 300km, which is contrary to the logical base point of the vehicle attribute from the introduction period to the outbreak period. We believe that the final development trend of the battery in the mainstream scene in the future is high energy density.
3) At the present stage, it is urgent to solve the utility of electric vehicles as a means of transportation. The low cost of various types of batteries will lead to the market
The proportion increased. At present, the range of new energy vehicles can reach 500-800 kilometers, which has met the requirements of vehicles
The next competitive factor is the cost of each type of element battery, from CTP structure lithium iron phosphate battery，From the pool to the large cylindrical battery and so on.